In Continental Valuations News, real estate valuation expert witness Robert D. Domini, MBA, MAI, writes:
Not only is there a natural fallout from an auto recession, but this time around the domestic auto companies have run out of money, although Ford has survived so far without Government funds. GM and Chrysler are being forced to close dealerships. GM is shedding divisions as we speak.
Commercial real estate owners are facing a double whammy. They are not only fighting higher vacancy, lower rents and higher cap rates, but they are also facing restricted debt options. As the economy continues to shed jobs at a rate of 650,000 to 700,000 per month, investors will face ever greater challenges. According to Deutsche Bank, the conduit lenders are facing 3.5% delinquency and expect the figure to reach 6% by the end of the year. The peak rate during the early 90s was in the 6% to 7% range. So, with 5-year rollovers coming due, investors face much tighter underwriting standards amidst declining prices, cash flow, rents, etc.


